Farm Merrigan — Dedicated 622m Microclimate, Rainfall & 10m Satellite Paddock Map

Cumulative Multi-Horizon Rainfall Probability Distribution (Path-Integrated Across 403 Trajectories)

Includes Google DeepMind WeatherNext 2 (64-mem), Google/NOAA AIGFS & AIGEFS (31-mem), ECMWF AIFS (51-mem), ECMWF IFS, BOM Panuara & UKMO

Intelligently Collated Daily Rainfall Distribution Fan + Google WeatherNext 2 Overlay

Bayesian horizon-weighted synthesis of 403 trajectories at 622m ASL. Click any day on chart to inspect full exceedance distribution.

P10–P90 Band (80% CI) P25–P75 IQR (50% CI) Collated Mean E[R] Collated Median P50 Google WeatherNext 2 (64-Mem Mean)

Roof Harvest: 1 mm = 300 L

DAY INSPECTOR

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★ Google WeatherNext 2 (64m): --

P10 (Dry)

P25 (75%)

P50 Med

Mean E[R]

P90 (Wet)

Exceedance Probability P(Rainfall ≥ Threshold):

Discrete Intensity Bracket Distribution (Sums to 100%):

35-Day Intelligently Collated Rainfall Distribution & Exceedance Schedule (Farm Merrigan 622m ASL)

Full quantile breakdown (P10 to P90), Google WeatherNext 2 (64-mem mean), exceedance probabilities, temperature, ETo evapotranspiration, and net moisture balance.

Date	Horizon	Traj	Mean E[R]	Med P50	Google WN2	P10	P25	P75	P90	P(≥1mm)	P(≥5mm)	P(≥10mm)	P(≥25mm)	Tmin/Tmax	ETo	Net H2O

Exhaustive Model × Time Horizon Forecast Matrix (24 Global AI & Physics Suites + Collated BMA Consensus)

Led by Google DeepMind WeatherNext 2 (64-mem), NOAA/Google GraphCast AIGFS & AIGEFS (31-mem), ECMWF AIFS (51-mem), BOM Panuara, ECMWF 9km HRES, and UKMO 10km.

Matrix Parameter:

Active Meteorological Panel (24 Suites / 403 Trajectories) & Bayesian Skill-Weighting Architecture

Why Merrigan (622m ASL) Diverges Sharply From Orange (948m ASL)

Panuara shares postcode 2800 with Orange, causing standard weather apps to snap to Orange or Orange Airport AWS (948m ASL, 21.5 km NE on the high shoulder of Mt Canobolas 1,395m ASL). At 622m ASL in the Panuara/Belubula valley corridor, Merrigan sits 326 metres lower, producing a systematic +3.2°C to +4.3°C adiabatic warmth offset, earlier spring phalaris/clover growth, and distinct Mt Canobolas rain-shadow vs. inland trough rainfall patterns.

15-Day Daily Rainfall Comparison: Merrigan (622m) vs Orange (948m) [mm]

15-Day Maximum Temperature Comparison: Merrigan (622m) vs Orange (948m) [°C]

Date	Merrigan Rain (622m)	Orange Rain (948m)	Rain Delta	Google/NOAA AIGFS (Mer / Org)	ECMWF 9km (Mer / Org)	Merrigan Tmax	Orange Tmax	Temp Delta	Orographic / Microclimate Regime Diagnosis

6-Month Monthly Rainfall Distribution vs. 30-Year ERA5 Climatology (Oct 2026 – Apr 2027)

51-member ECMWF SEAS5 coupled ocean-atmosphere ensemble at 622m ASL benchmarked against Merrigan's 30-year (1996–2025) historical median and mean.

26-Week Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal Weekly Rainfall Plume (Out to April 2027)

Weekly P10–P90 band, P25–P75 interquartile range, median, and mean across all 51 coupled seasonal members.

6-Month Coupled Seasonal Probabilistic Breakdown (ECMWF SEAS5 51-Member Ensemble vs. 1996–2025 ERA5 Baseline)

Month	Days	SEAS5 Med (P50)	SEAS5 Mean	SEAS5 IQR (P25–P75)	SEAS5 P10–P90	30-Yr Clim Med	30-Yr Clim Mean	P(>Clim Med)	Anomaly	P(≥50mm)	P(≥100mm)

Farm Merrigan 30-Year Empirical Climatology (1996–2025 ERA5 Reanalysis, 10,958 Days at 622m ASL)

Calendar Month	Mean Rain (mm)	Median P50 (mm)	Dry P10 (mm)	P25 (mm)	P75 (mm)	Wet P90 (mm)	Wet Days (≥1mm)	Mean Tmax	Mean Tmin	Mean ETo (mm/d)

Next 72 Hours: Graminus Agronomy Spraying Windows (Delta-T, Wind & Soil Moisture at 622m ASL)

Optimal spraying criteria for broadleaf/winter-cleaning programmes: 2.0°C ≤ ΔT ≤ 8.0°C, 3 ≤ Wind ≤ 15 km/h, and zero precipitation.

Hour (AEDT)	Spray Window	ΔT (°C)	Temp (°C)	RH (%)	Wind (Gust)	Rain (Prob)	6cm Soil T	Root VWC

Merrigan Homestead Rain Gauge Log (merrigan_farm_twin.db)

Authentic physical gauge readings recorded in the Merrigan Farm Diary.

Record Physical Gauge Reading:

Merrigan Paddock & Pasture Register (~90.7 ha Arable)

Interactive 10m×10m Pixel Paddock Explorer (UTM Zone 55S)

Hover over any 10m pixel across Merrigan's surveyed Graminus GIS paddocks to inspect live NDVI, NDMI moisture & Feed On Offer.

Hover over any paddock pixel for 10m telemetry... 1 Pixel = 10m × 10m (100 m²)

4-Panel Copernicus Sentinel-2C (10m) Multispectral Composite

1. True Colour Optical • 2. NDVI Vigour & FOO • 3. NDMI Canopy Moisture • 4. 7-Day Growth vs Grazing Differential

↗ Full-Res PNG

Farm Merrigan 10m Sentinel-2 Pasture Telemetry

Surveyed Paddock-by-Paddock Sentinel-2 (10m) Pasture State & Multi-Pass Trajectory

Clipped to exact Graminus Consulting GIS polygons (EPSG:28355 GDA94 / MGA Zone 55) across 5 consecutive 100%-clear passes (25 Sep → 15 Oct 2026)

Paddock	Area (ha)	10m Pixels	25 Sep NDVI	30 Sep NDVI	08 Oct NDVI	15 Oct NDVI (P10–P90)	7d ΔNDVI	NDMI Moisture	Green Cover	Est. FOO (kg DM/ha)	Total Standing DM	Graminus Agronomy Notes (Nathan Ferguson)

Farm Merrigan — Probabilistic Rainfall, Multi-Model Weather & 10m Satellite Pasture Intelligence